November 18, 2003
It has come to the attention of U.S.Read that some within the Investigation feel that Captain States was not as concerned as First Officer Molin was during and following the "second event" (assumed 2nd wake encounter).
Specifically, during the seven and a half seconds that Sten Molin was inputting aggressive control inputs and asking for max power three times (his "max power" request at 9:15:54 was with a "strained voice") Investigators feel that Captain States was even more relaxed at that moment than when they were on the ground. The belief seems to also be that States did not become concerned until later in the sequence. This analysis supports the criticisms of Sten Molin's actions as overkill and holds that his voice was strained because he was exerting a lot of force on the right rudder pedal (the 3rd of 5 rudder movements). The latter may be true. But how is it possible for Sten Molin to execute the emergency "escape" maneuver, aggressively control the wheel, column, and rudder, and for States to be more relaxed at that moment than he was while they were taxiing? Even if States had no clue what had alerted Sten Molin, is it possible he would be cool as a cat while Sten Molin was performing all these actions?
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It seems this analysis by Investigators is based on one phrase spoken by Captain States, when he asked Sten Molin "you all right?" at 9:15:55.5 A.M., immediately after Sten Molin had asked for "max power" with a "strained voice" (per NTSB CVR Transcript). No one has access to the CVR (Cockpit Voice Recorder) except the CVR Study Group. No one is permitted to talk about its contents outside the investigation. So all we are left with is the waveform the NTSB produced of the CVR. This is the waveform of Captain States saying "you all right?" (Picture 1) |
It is very apparent from looking at this waveform of "you all right" that it was spoken so quickly (and perhaps loudly) that there is no discernible break (peaks and valleys) between the words. The waveform clearly indicates this was a very quickly spoken phrase by the fact it is only 0.33 seconds long. What kind of waveform would a relaxed, casual utterance of "you all right?", or "y'all right?" look like? Can we reproduce Captain States' waveform above and in doing so, learn anything about how casual he was? To answer these two questions we created the following recording.
This graphic (Picture 2) represents five waveforms of our test subject speaking the five phrases identified below the graphic (you can hear the mp3 file by clicking here or on Picture 2 itself):
It appears to us, that Captain States' "you all right?" waveform matches most closely our Waveform 4. That is the 4th phrase in our mp3 file.
It is very difficult for us to classify this as indicative of a relaxed and casual phrase. What is your opinion?
It is U.S.Read's opinion that Captain States was probably as concerned as his First Officer was in regards to whatever they were facing. And our continued belief that the initiating event has been missed by the NTSB.
Many Pilots have expressed that if the only problem these men were facing was an uncomfortable ride created by the First Officer in response to barely perceptible wake turbulence -- the Captain would have either told him to knock it off or he would have just taken control himself.
