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the image to enlarge
I
think that the break-up sequence began at the top of the rudder.
The photographs show that one of the major pieces that remains
of the rudder came from the top most section. From diagrams it
can be seen that there is about 4 feet of rudder above the top
most attachment point, hinge 7. I think that, if the force being
exerted on the rudder was sufficient, this top portion broke
from starboard to port, (figure 3), in line with the hinge. The
force would be concentrated along this point.
The break on the starboard side is very clean, (image 1) indicating to me that the pieces here were pulled away from each other. A photo of the port side (image 2) of this piece seems to show much more damage which one would expect as the two edges along the break are being compressed together. Also in image 2 the large tear, (A), level with hinge 7 appears to have been created by a force pulling from inside the rudder out or by the top rudder piece twisting or rotating as it broke away. Similar material can be seen still attached to the area around the remains of hinge 7, (image 3).
The twisting motion probably weakened the hinge on the rudder side where it failed. When this hinge failed the 5 feet of rudder between it and hinge 6 came under simmilar stress experienced by the top portion. This placed hinge 6 under considerable load which ultimately failed at the vertical stabilizer.
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